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Prediction for CME (2023-07-10T04:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-10T04:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25870/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SW in SOHO LASCO C2, C3, and STEREO A COR2 imagery (data gap during event in STEREO A as it travels out in the field of view). The source of this CME is a double ribbon flare near AR13366 and plage region 13358 and associated filament eruption starting around 2023-07-10T03:20Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA 131, 304, and 171. The associated filament is very clearly seen in GOES SUVI 304 as well. Arrival signature: Clear interplanetary shock consisting of magnetic field enhancement from 7 nT to 14 nT, rapid increase in ACE particle density, and rapid but relatively small increases in solar wind speed and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-13T15:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-12T18:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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A fast partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 04:00 UTC on July 10th. The CME has estimated projected velocity around 1000 km/s and is related to M2.4-flaring from NOAA AR 3366 (beta) with start time 03:29 UTC, peak time 03:55 UTC and end time 04:22 UTC on July 10th. Type II radio emission was detected at 03:41 UTC during the flaring activity. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, preliminary analysis suggests that a glancing blow could possibly arrive at Earth in the UTC afternoon of July 12th, though probability of arrival is relatively small. Further analysis is ongoing to better determine the CME direction of propagation and expected impacts at Earth.
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# Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium                #

Lead Time: 68.60 hour(s)
Difference: 21.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2023-07-10T19:13Z

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